Setting Calorie Targets That Actually Work

Every calculator gives you a different number. One says 2,400. Another says 2,100. A third says 2,650. You pick one, follow it for two weeks, and nothing happens.

The problem isn't the calculation. It's that calculations are starting points, not gospel.

---

Why Calculations Are Just Estimates

Calorie calculators use formulas based on population averages. They estimate your basal metabolic rate (BMR) and multiply by an activity factor.

The Mifflin-St Jeor equation (most commonly used):

• Men: BMR = (10 × weight in kg) + (6.25 × height in cm) - (5 × age) + 5
• Women: BMR = (10 × weight in kg) + (6.25 × height in cm) - (5 × age) - 161

Then multiply by activity factor (1.2-1.9 depending on activity level).

Why this fails:

• Your metabolism may be 10-15% above or below average [1]
• Activity factors are crude estimates
• NEAT (non-exercise activity) varies hugely between people
• Previous dieting history affects current metabolism

A calculator might give you 2,400 calories for maintenance. Your actual maintenance could be 2,100 or 2,700. The only way to know is to test it.

---

The Practical Approach

Forget precision. Start somewhere reasonable and adjust based on results.

Step 1: Get a starting estimate

Use any reputable calculator. Multiply bodyweight in kg by:

• 26-28 for sedentary (desk job, no exercise)
• 30-32 for moderately active (exercise 3-4x/week)
• 34-36 for very active (physical job, exercise 5-6x/week)

This gives you estimated maintenance. Then adjust for your goal.

Step 2: Adjust for goal

Goal	Adjustment
Fat loss (moderate)	Subtract 400-500
Fat loss (aggressive)	Subtract 600-750
Maintenance	No change
Muscle gain (lean)	Add 200-300
Muscle gain (faster)	Add 400-500

Step 3: Follow it for 2-3 weeks

Track accurately. Weigh yourself daily, take weekly averages.

Step 4: Adjust based on reality

Result	Adjustment
Losing too fast (>1%/week)	Add 100-200 calories
Losing too slow (<0.5%/week)	Remove 100-200 calories or add activity
Gaining too fast (>0.5kg/week)	Remove 100-200 calories
Gaining too slow (<0.1kg/week)	Add 100-200 calories
Weight stable (maintenance goal)	No change needed

---

Fat Loss Targets

The sweet spot: 0.5-1% of bodyweight per week

This maximises fat loss while minimising muscle loss [2]. Go faster and you risk losing muscle. Go slower and you're just extending the diet unnecessarily.

For a 75kg person:

• Target loss: 0.4-0.75 kg per week
• Typical deficit: 400-600 calories per day

The maths: 1 kg of body fat ≈ 7,700 calories To lose 0.5 kg/week: 7,700 × 0.5 ÷ 7 = 550 calorie daily deficit

But this assumes perfect accuracy. Real-world deficits are messier. Start with 400-500 and adjust.

---

Muscle Gain Targets

The sweet spot: 200-500 calorie surplus

More doesn't build muscle faster—it just adds fat. Natural lifters can only build 0.25-0.5 kg of muscle per month after the beginner phase [3].

For a 75kg person:

• Target gain: 0.2-0.5 kg per week (includes some fat)
• Typical surplus: 250-400 calories per day

If you're gaining faster than 0.5 kg/week, most excess is fat. Reduce calories slightly.

---

Maintenance Targets

Maintenance is where weight stays stable over weeks. Not days—days fluctuate. Weeks tell the truth.

Finding your maintenance:

1. Estimate using calculations
2. Eat that amount for 2-3 weeks
3. Track weight daily, look at weekly averages
4. If weight drifted up: maintenance is lower
5. If weight drifted down: maintenance is higher
6. Adjust by 100-200 calories and retest

Knowing your true maintenance is valuable. It's your anchor point for cuts and bulks.

---

Macro Distribution Within Calories

Once you have total calories, distribute them:

Protein first: 1.6-2.2g per kg bodyweight This is non-negotiable for preserving/building muscle.

Fat minimum: 0.6-1g per kg bodyweight Essential for hormones and basic function. Don't go below this.

Carbs fill the rest: Whatever calories remain after protein and fat go to carbs.

Example for 80kg person at 2,000 calories (fat loss):

• Protein: 160g (2g/kg) = 640 calories
• Fat: 60g (0.75g/kg) = 540 calories
• Carbs: remaining 820 calories = 205g

---

When Reality Doesn't Match

You followed 2,000 calories perfectly. The calculator said you'd lose 0.5 kg/week. You lost nothing.

Possible explanations:

1. You're not tracking accurately (most common)
2. Your metabolism is lower than predicted
3. Water fluctuations are masking fat loss
4. You're eating more on weekends than you realise

The fix:

First, verify tracking accuracy for one week. Weigh food. Count oils. Include the bites and tastes.

If tracking is accurate and weight is stable, you've found your maintenance. Now create a deficit from there, not from what the calculator said.

---

Adjusting Over Time

Targets aren't permanent. They change as:

Your weight changes: A 90kg person burns more than an 80kg person. As you lose weight, your calorie needs drop. Recalculate every 5-10kg lost.

Your metabolism adapts: Extended dieting causes metabolic adaptation—your body becomes more efficient. What was a deficit becomes maintenance. This is why periodic diet breaks help.

Your activity changes: More steps = more calories burned. New job = potentially different NEAT. Injury = reduced activity. Adjust targets accordingly.

---

The Minimum Floor

There's a floor below which you shouldn't go, regardless of weight loss goals.

General minimums:

• Women: Not below 1,200 calories
• Men: Not below 1,500 calories

Athletic/active minimums:

• Women: Not below 1,400-1,600 calories
• Men: Not below 1,800-2,000 calories

Going below these risks nutrient deficiencies, muscle loss, hormonal disruption, and psychological damage that leads to rebound.

If your calculated deficit puts you below these floors, either:

• Accept slower fat loss
• Add activity instead of cutting more food
• Consider whether your goal weight is realistic

---

References

1. Müller MJ, et al. Metabolic adaptation to caloric restriction and subsequent refeeding: the Minnesota Starvation Experiment revisited. Am J Clin Nutr. 2015;102(4):807-819. doi:10.3945/ajcn.115.109173

2. Garthe I, et al. Effect of two different weight-loss rates on body composition and strength and power-related performance in elite athletes. Int J Sport Nutr Exerc Metab. 2011;21(2):97-104. doi:10.1123/ijsnem.21.2.97

3. Slater GJ, et al. Is an Energy Surplus Required to Maximize Skeletal Muscle Hypertrophy Associated With Resistance Training. Front Nutr. 2019;6:131. doi:10.3389/fnut.2019.00131

---

TrainingFuel calculates your calorie targets based on your goal and adjusts them automatically as your weight changes and results come in. No more guessing.